In its report, IMF forecasted Vietnam’s nominal per capita gross domestic product (GDP) to reach $5,259 this year, up 8.9 percent from $4,829 in 2025.
If this projection is realized, Vietnam’s per capita GDP will nearly double compared to a decade ago.
For 2026, Vietnam targets an economic growth rate of at least 10 percent. According to the National Statistics Office under the Ministry of Finance, third-quarter GDP grew by an estimated 9.95 percent year-on-year, outpacing the 8.15 percent rise in the first quarter and 8.81 percent in the second quarter. In the first nine months, GDP expanded by 9.01 percent, marking the highest nine-month growth rate in 15 years.
The Vietnamese government’s active push for public investment is supporting economic growth, Ms. Mai Fujita, a senior researcher at Japan’s Institute of Developing Economies (IDE) shared with Nikkei Asia.
Data from the General Statistics Office shows that disbursed public investment from the state budget in the first nine months of 2026 reached an estimated VND661.8 trillion, an increase of 19 percent compared to the same period in 2025 and fulfilling 59.9 percent of the annual plan. Numerous expressway, airport, and infrastructure projects are currently underway nationwide.
Foreign capital flows have also surged. Implemented foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam during the nine-month period reached an estimated $21.07 billion, up 12.1 percent year-on-year, marking a five-year high for the period.
Notably, registered FDI - a key indicator of investment trends - surged 76.4 percent year-on-year in the first nine months of 2026 to hit $50.36 billion.
Exports remain a key growth engine
Exports continue to be a bright spot in Vietnam’s economic landscape. Over the first nine months of 2026, Vietnam’s merchandise export turnover reached $434.3 billion, up 24.5 percent year-on-year.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s economic growth remains around 5 percent.
Despite attracting FDI into sectors like electric vehicles, these capital flows appear insufficient to create adequate employment or boost household incomes proportionately. A weaker local currency has also slowed Indonesia’s nominal GDP growth when converted into US dollars.
IMF data shows that in 2025, Vietnam’s per capita GDP stood at $4,829, roughly $250 lower than Indonesia’s $5,078. However, this gap is expected to close within a single year as Vietnam’s per capita GDP expands 8.9 percent in 2026, far outstripping Indonesia’s 1.5 percent growth.
The IMF projects Vietnam’s per capita GDP to hit $7,105 by 2030, up 35.1 percent from 2026 - the highest growth rate among all 11 ASEAN economies. With Indonesia projected to reach $6,944, the gap between the two nations will widen from $106 in 2026 to $161 in 2030.
Even so, the per capita GDP margin between the two countries will remain around 2 percent, with Vietnam and Indonesia expected to maintain their fifth and sixth positions in ASEAN through 2030, respectively.
Vietnam aims to achieve a per capita GDP of $8,500 by 2030, equivalent to Thailand’s current level. In contrast, Thailand’s real GDP growth has averaged around 2 percent annually, weighed down partly by household debt.
International forecasts for Vietnam’s economic growth remain lower than the government’s target. In its report, the IMF projects Vietnam’s GDP growth at 8.4 percent this year, compared to the official target of at least 10 percent.
In its Asian Development Outlook published in September, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasted Vietnam’s economy to grow 7.8 percent in 2026 and 7.6 percent in 2027, while the IMF expects 2027 growth to hover around 7.5 percent.
Ms. Fujita noted that alongside short-term infrastructure spending, Vietnam needs to focus on long-term drivers such as human resource development and technological innovation.
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